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Application case of big data analysis-robustness of a trading model
QIN Xiongpai, CHEN Yueguo, WANG Bangguo
Journal of Computer Applications    2017, 37 (3): 660-667.   DOI: 10.11772/j.issn.1001-9081.2017.03.660
Abstract536)      PDF (1417KB)(490)       Save
The robustness of a trading model means that the model's profitability curve is less volatile and does not fluctuate significantly. To solve the problem of robustness of an algorithmic trading model based on Support Vector Regression (SVR), several strategies to derive a unified trading model and a portfolio diversification method were proposed. Firstly, the algorithm trade model based on SVR was introduced. Then, based on the commonly used indicators, a number of derived indicators were constructed for short term forecasting of stock prices. The typical patterns of recent price movements, overbought/oversold market conditions, and divergence of market conditions were characterized by these indicators. These indicators were normalized and used to train the trading model so that the model can be generalized to different stocks. Finally, a portfolio diversification method was designed. In the portfolio, the correlation between various stocks, sometimes leads to great investment losses; because the price of the stock with strong correlation changes in the same direction. If the trading model doesn't predict the price trend correctly, then stop loss will be triggered, and these stocks will cause loss in a mutual accelerated manner. Stocks were clustered into different categories according to the similarity, and a diversified portfolio was formed by selecting a number of stocks from different clustered categories. The similarity of stocks, was defined as the similarity of the recent profit curves on different stocks by trading models.Experiments were carried out on the data of 900 stocks for 10 years. The experimental results show that the transaction model can obtain excess profit rate over time deposit, and the annualized profit rate is 8.06%. The maximum drawdown of the trading model was reduced from 13.23% to 5.32%, and the Sharp ratio increased from 81.23% to 88.79%. The volatility of the profit margin curve of the trading model decreased, which means that the robustness of the trading model was improved.
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